papildināta - Premjeri: iespējamam otram finanšu krīzes vilnim Baltijas valstis ir sagatavojušās labāk

Otrais krīzes vilnis iecerēts attīstītāju- finansistu scenārijos kā esošo parādu pieaudzēšana-50- 100%, lai parāda atdošana apgrūtinātu trešdaļu vai pusi bedžeta, tad ārējie noteikumi tiks pieņemti bez ierunām. Pie Latvijas konsolidācijas scenārijiem un to prakses konsolidēs kādus tēriņus? Izglītība- lauku novados ieviestā prakse- "nauda seko skolām" iznīcinās lielāko daļu atlikušās, varēs ar šo ieganstu piebeigt profesionāli- tehnisko un amatu izglītību, augstakās izglītības mācību maksas sen nav advekātas iedzīvotāju ienākumu skalēm, bet izglītības zemais finansējums mazina kvalitāti, Sociāla aizsardzība- pensijas vecums līdz 75 vai savādak- valsts un sabiedrība atbrīvosies no pienākuma rūpŗties par sirmgalvjiem, veselības aizsardzība- pieaugs saslimstība un mirstība. Un kā ar emigrāciju un iedzīvotāju skaita samazināšanos? Un tie uzņemēji, kuri iemācījušies izdzīvot šādā laikā," ar sajūsmu un izpratni" pieņems perspektīvu izdzīvošanu turpināt. .. lai nokļūtu eksporta apritēs? Kam gatavs Dombrovskis- ar turpmāku paļāvību ES ieviest eiro Latvijā. Plāni, kuri paredz ekonomikas augšupeju, virzīti galvenokārt uz eksporta attīstību- atkarību no Eiropas tirgiem un ES un ASV globalekonomistu eksperimentiem. Ne iekšēja tirgus aizsardzības pasākumi un plāni, ne likumdošanas piemērošana valsts nodokļu diferencē tautsaimniecībā kā uzņemējdarbības attīstību veicinoši faktors, ne valsts pārvaldes iestāzu un ministriju depolitizācija. Un kapēc būtu jābalso par Vienotību? Par sekošanu "ekonomisko slepkavu" ekspertu rekomendācijām?

Tiešām atliek tikai ieņirgt. Sevišķi par krīzes pārvarēšanas "recepti".

" kad karavāna pagriežas, klibais kamielis izrādās priekšgalā"

just keep telling yourself that darlng :)

Jā, progress tiešām ir ļoti jūtams - 100latnieku vietā nu jau būs 80latnieki. Un, kas zina, varbūt Dombrovska vadībā visas iespējas šajā virzienā vel ne tuvu nav izsmeltas...

The Miracle of Baltic Austerity?: The Case of Latvia The belief that austerity in the Baltic states has been “successful,” and that it is a sustainable path to growth is one of the most truly absurd things I have heard of late. Let’s focus on Latvia here, which has implemented austerity and “internal devaluation” (or “wage and price deflation”). Let’s look at some figures: (1) GDP and (2) unemployment. Latvia’s GDP 2008 Q1 -4.1 2008 Q2 -2.4 2008 Q3 -1.1 2008 Q4 -3.1 2009 Q1 -12% 2009 Q2 -2 2009 Q3 -3.7 2009 Q4 0.1% 2010 Q1 0.2% 2010 Q2 0.6% 2010 Q3 1.6% 2010 Q4 1.1% 2011 Q1 0.2% GDP Growth, Latvia, Tradingeconomics.com. In contrast to other countries that went big with Keynesian stimulus (like Australia), Latvia has suffered a massive depression in 2008–2010 where real GDP slumped by 30%. Latvia’s GDP growth after the depression has not been that impressive: in two quarters growth has been 0.2% and in one quarter 0.1%. It has even fallen to 0.2% in Q1 2011. Its non-tradeable goods sector has contracted badly and remains subdued. The GDP growth has been accomplished by export-led recovery, but that growth path is unsustainable: austerity in European nations – Latvia’s trade partners – will hit Latvia hard, and derail their recovery. While Lithuania, Estonia and Russia are large trading partners of Latvia, it is also dependent on a number of EU countries for exports, as we can see in its trade partners by percentage of exports in 2010: Norway 3% Finland 3% UK 4% Denmark 4% Poland 5% Sweden 6% Germany 9%. Foreign Trade Statistics, Trade with Latvia. Thus 34% of its exports are bound for EU countries where austerity will depress demand and reduce Latvian exports. Already a number of Baltic states have hit capacity constraints and will see their exports fall this year (see “Baltic Growth Set to Slow as Export Capacity, Demand Are Capped,” May 12, 2011). With no room for domestic stimulus, there may well be lower growth or a return to recession. Latvia Unemployment Rate Dec. 2007 5.5% Jan. 2008 6.2% Jun. 2008 7.5% Dec. 2008 10.2% May 2009 16.5% Aug. 2009 18.7% Oct. 2009 20.1% Jun. 2010 19.3% Dec. 2010 17.2% Latvia Unemployment Rate. Unemployment has fallen to 13.9% in April, 2011, but, despite the export-led GDP growth, double digit unemployment is still a catastrophe in Latvia: the country will have mass unemployment for years. How has the voting population allowed this to happen? The answer is that the labour movement in Latvia is weak and its ethnic nationalism causes its majority Latvian citizens to vote for their own Latvian party, despite the unpopularity of that party’s economic policies. The social costs of “austerity” have also been a disaster, as Jeffrey Sommers and Michael Hudson have noted: “But Latvia’s model is not replicable. Latvia has no labor movement to speak of, and little tradition of activism based on anything other than ethnicity. Contrary to most press coverage, its austerity policies are not popular. The election turned on ethnic issues, not a referendum on economic policy. Ethnic Latvians (the majority) voted for the ethnic Latvian parties (mostly neoliberal), while the sizeable 30% minority of Russian speakers voted with similar discipline for their party (loosely Keynesian) …. While the economic crisis was deep enough to drive even Latvia’s depoliticized population into the streets in the winter of 2009, most Latvians soon after found the path of least resistance to be simply to emigrate. Neoliberal austerity has created demographic losses exceeding Stalin’s deportations back in the 1940s (although without the latter’s loss of life). As government cutbacks in education, health care and other basic social infrastructure threaten to undercut long-term development, young people are emigrating to better their life rather than to suffer in an economy without jobs. Over 12% of the overall population (and a much larger percentage of its labor force) now works abroad. Moreover, children (what few of them there are as marriage and birth rates drop) have been left orphaned behind, prompting demographers to wonder how this small country can survive. So unless other debt-strapped European economies with populations far exceeding Latvia’s 2.3 million people can find foreign labor markets to accept their workers unemployed under the new financial austerity, this exit option will not be available.
 Jeffrey Sommers and Michael Hudson, “The Spectre Haunting Europe, Debt Defaults, Austerity, and Death of the “Social Europe” Model,” http://michael-hudson.com, January 22, 2011. If Latvia is a “success,” then one truly wonders what a failure would look like. Latvia’s export-led growth will falter, and what is required is more domestic growth, but with continued austerity that will not happen. If one defines economic “success” as suffering a huge depression, mass unemployment, 12% of the whole population working abroad, a brain drain, falling birth rates, poverty, and unreliable export-led growth, then Latvia has “succeeded.” For anyone else not enslaved to neoliberal propaganda, Latvia is a miserable failure, a lesson in what not to do.

arī pirms pirmās krīzes LV valdošie kadri tikai par to vien runāja, ka mūs tas nekādi neskars...

Pat svetdiena" finansu eksperti" savos komentaros censas cits citu parspet ,lai pieraditu savu "kompotenci",visos jautajumos.

Kāpēc viņš neskatās acīs?

Neesam vis - jo visi resursi iztereti, ari koksw vairs nav daudz palicis, dala spejigako aizbraukusi, ekonomika sagruvusi, bet paradi milzigi.

Krizes gadiijumaa man ir daudz, daudz, daudz vaiaak uzticiibas Dombrovskim un Vilkam nekaa Kalviitim un Slakterim...

Mana pieredze ari divi lielu rupnicu direktori ta saplesas,ka taisit gribeja ciet ,katra 5000 stradajoso. Vienas rupnicas viena ceha veci panema kiveres un aizgaja pie direktora parunat-ar kiverem dauzija pa lielo kabineta galdu ta ka skaneja visa rupnica,kas ko runaja nezinu,bet jautajums bija atrisunats-abi direktori aizvacas un cilveki turpinaja stradat. Te tas pats-vienu jau tauta atlaida refernduma rezultata un vina darisana ir apsaubama. Te jau arī,Dombrovskim vajag atgūt zaudēto politisko kapitālu, tāpēc jau nevar vien beigt "izstellēties" sazin par kādu valsts interešu pārstāvi, kaut gan tādas šamam nekad nav bijušas!

Var tik ierēkt :) :) :)