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Svētdiena, 29. decembris
Solveiga, Ilgona

Bridging Current Divide between Russians and Georgians Will Be Hard

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AM
A
It is unrealistic to expect that these territories will be returned (just in case someone makes up a version that someone here "calls for conquering and dividing Russia"), it was meant to remind some people that they should not say good words if those cannot be backed up with good deeds. btw that was one of the main problems that lead the USSR to its end - saying one thing and doing the opposite all the time is not good.
AM
A
On the contrary, Russia has taken Transnistria from Moldova and Abkhazia/South Ossetia from Georgia. btw when the Chechen separatists want to be independent they are called bandits and terrorists. When Russia needs to pressure Georgia it makes South Ossetia an "independent country" but at the same time independence of North Ossetia (which is a part of Russia) is not even spoken about. Referring to Kosovo as a precedent (precedent to what? Russian "peacekeepers" were in Georgia years before the Kosovo crisis even started!) and at the same time not reconnizing Kosovo. Hypocrites.
AM
A
There were no territorial changes, they just clarified the border on a river. Can you name any LARGER territories Russia has returned after 1991 as an act of good will? Kaliningrad? Karelian Isthmus? Territories taken from Latvia and Estonia? The Kurils? And has Russia made a statement that Georgia will get the lost territories back?
!
!
Still here? "The Big Bear never gives back what it has taken." Indeed? Russia and China agreed on and effected territorial changes recently.
AM
A
What to do? Georgia would benefit from support (obviously). NATO membership is desirable. There is little if any hope to recover the lost territories, at least now. The Big Bear never gives back what it has taken.
AM
A
There are three possible scenarios: Optimistic - Russia withdraws from the separatist territories and stops acting as an "elder brother" of Georgia, and Georgia may join NATO (sure and pigs fly) Most likely IMO - the situation remains as it is; separatist territories are lost; Georgia either joins NATO or does not; the first case would help, at least make Georgia safe. Hostilities (at least on the level of propaganda) continue, but they are likely to continue in any realistic scenario. Worst case - Russia makes a new attempt to change the government of Georgia, whether military or by other means. It may even be successful; Russia's ambitions are encouraged and danger for other post-soviet countries increases. Bad news for theme switchers: there are no similar situations involving Latvia or USA (conflicts on the basis of territorial disputes). Sorry. Will have to discuss Russia this time.

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